Just a year ago in February, I wrote the following on my blog:
"7 predictions for what the post-COVID food and beverage industry might be like!" (▶ Click here for the blog )
Back then, every time you went through a tunnel, you'd have to go through another tunnel. And when you finally got out, it would start pouring again.
As I tend to feel gloomy every day, I thought it was important to imagine a clear sky, and made my own predictions about what would happen once the coronavirus pandemic was over. And I tried to shake off my anxiety.
Now, one year later, was that prediction correct or incorrect?
I would like to try and evaluate the seven predictions I wrote at the time.
1) There has been a sharp increase in dining out events such as welcome and farewell parties, class reunions, company parties, and business entertainment, which has benefited restaurants everywhere.
[Self-rating: 1 star ★☆☆☆☆]
This is not at all. Not yet. At that time, I thought I could just endure for another year or so, but I was naive. There was no sudden increase at all.
To be honest, there are days when I'm in a relaxed mood. But on weekends, it feels like customers are coming back. But on the other hand, it's still a bit of a slog.
I've heard some people say that company drinking parties "won't happen anymore." This tendency seems to be especially strong for those in jobs where they are not returning from remote work.
On the other hand, there are also people who say, "It's really because of office drinking parties that work goes so smoothly."
In the future, there may be stores that offer services like "office drinking party discounts."
I really hope that things will gradually return around this spring, around the time of farewell and welcome parties.
2) The number of drunk people will increase dramatically.
[Self-rating: 3 stars ★★★☆☆]
It went up a little for a while, but has now settled down.
The number of cases is likely to increase as the weather warms. This year's cherry blossom viewing season may be a bit risky.
3) There is a severe shortage of part-time staff.
[Self-rating: 5 stars ★★★★★]
I ended up winning something I didn't want to win. In the past, when I called out on social media, I was introduced to someone right away and it was common for me to be hired. But now it's not so easy.
A customer in his early twenties who sat at the counter the other day said, "I feel like students' communication skills have deteriorated because they've had to wear masks for so long. I think a lot of students might avoid private restaurants where communication skills are required."
I see. It's unfortunate, but I think I understand it somehow.
"But, if it were me, I might want to work at a store like this. It's stylish and something I can be proud of!" She added, which gave me some relief. I just haven't met the person I want to work for yet.
I can painfully understand the feelings of people who are trying hard on matchmaking apps, saying, "I just haven't met my soulmate yet, so next, next!"
Even so, I want to create a new structure with new people by March.
4) Non-alcoholic and low-alcohol drinks are finally becoming a major trend.
[Self-rating: 3 stars ★★★☆☆]
With this in mind, Bokumo has increased the number of non-alcoholic cocktails. Although they don't sell very well, they are being ordered consistently.
I don't feel like it's a boom, but I do think it's something that will be necessary for restaurants in the future.
5) Inbound tourism will increase dramatically.
[Self-rating: 1 star ★☆☆☆☆]
It's not increasing dramatically. You're being too lenient, Iwasu.
Last week, someone on a business trip from Tokyo told me that "the number of international tourists has already returned to Tokyo in large numbers."
Is that so...?
But even before COVID, Nagoya was known as a city with relatively few tourist attractions. It's a nice place to live, though. And it's hard to deny that Nagoya tourism relies too much on Nagoya food.
In such an environment, we are doing something that doesn't really have much of a Japanese element: New Zealand wine and international cuisine.
To begin with, the type of business and town in which we operate makes it difficult to get a feel for inbound tourism, so it's difficult for a store like Bokumo to gauge whether tourists are making a comeback.
However, before COVID, when the All Blacks played at Toyota Stadium, there were fans from New Zealand. I was happy about that. I hope there will be more cases like this, where Japanese people think, "What would happen if Japanese people interpreted New Zealand?"
Also, as the number of visitors to Japan increases, some people will be looking for something other than Nagoya food. Even something as unusual as "New Zealand wine and lamb chops in Nagoya" might interest foreigners from outside New Zealand.
I have to prepare properly for that.
So now I'm taking an online course called "Restaurant English."
Today I learned, "Thank you for dining with us."
6) Mass disposal of acrylic sheets becomes a problem.
[Self-rating: 1 star ★☆☆☆☆]
I think it was a good idea. However, many places still use it. My shop still has it on the counter.
However, I hope that in a year's time it will no longer be an unnecessary item.
It really does get in the way of conversation. Personally, I feel like we're losing about half of the communication we could have because of the mask and the acrylic panels.
7) “Zoom drinking parties” will become a dead term.
[Self-rating: 5 stars ★★★★★]
Well this may be so.
However, even though online drinking parties have disappeared, the fact that "if you can do it online, do it online" for work-related matters has become the norm, which I think is a big change in society. I have also benefited from this, and now we basically hold our Bokumo Wine meetings online.
However, the problem is that if you work remotely, you won't be able to just go out for a drink after work. I feel that we were supported by everyone's "just doing it" every day.
So the results were 2 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws.
It's really difficult to predict the future. But looking back on it like this, it feels like I'm having a conversation with my past self, and it's kind of fun.
Next week, we'll try making predictions for 2024, a year from now.
Just laugh, demon.
